What's the line adjustment if TO plays?

sportsbet · Jan 25, 2005

I posted this in the offshore forum as well.

Is the 7 up there assuming Owens isn't going to play or that he is going to play? What do you think the line would be if Owens was healthy and starting? I know the Eagles will be as quiet and evasive as possible about this through the next 2 weeks. They won't break any NFL rules obviously but I don't think they will take "extra time" in evaluating TO's status.

sb

attilamm · Jan 25, 2005

I think the line is in the middle(good adjusted)--> low for TO won't play and high for TO play... when this situation is clear the line will move +/-1.5... I'll prefer TO not to play as I'm going to buy PHI and enjoy higher line around 8...

I think TO will not change much... he's not playing for 1.5-2 months... It'll affect...

99Percent · Jan 25, 2005

Here ya go... http://covers.com/includes/articles.aspx?theArt=40776&tid=27&t=2


“I think seven is the right number,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “My opinion is it won’t get higher. If anything it comes down. A lot hinges on Terrell Owens.”

Owens has been out with a severe ankle injury suffered five weeks ago. He’s the wild-card. A healthy Owens, coupled with Brian Westbrook, probably would cause serious match-up problems for the Patriots who are without Ty Law. Seba said based on pure power rankings, he would favor the Patriots by four against the Eagles on a neutral field, five if Owens wasn’t playing.....

PatPatriot · Jan 25, 2005

OhOh, TO playing I'm so scared....Payton Manning is playing.....I'm so scared....Big Ben and the Bus is playing...I'm so sacred.

While the NFC title contest featured the narrowest quality wins margin of any playoff pairing this year, Super Bowl XXXIX features one of the greatest disparities.

• New England is 9-1 against quality opponents (and 19-1 over the past two seasons)
• Philly is 3-1 against quality opponents
• New England has outscored its 10 quality opponents by an average of 11.0 PPG (25.8-14.8)
• Philly has outscored its four quality opponents by an average of 7.0 PPG (23.0-16.0)
• New England’s quality opponents posted a combined record of 116-56 (.674)
• Philly’s quality opponents posted a combined record of 47-22 (.681).

When are you knuckle heads ever going to get it.

SubwaySam · Jan 25, 2005

Read a stat-based handicapper's column (Dr. Bob) after Moss was injured and he claimed Moss was worth 9 pts to Minnesota. Given that baseline and Philly's offensive output the last 2 games, I'm guessing Owens is worth 7 points. Of course, that doesn't mean the line will move 7 points; I'd be surprised to see it drop beyond 4.5 and would expect 6. A 100% healthy TO would likely create good line value in favor of Philly.

LineBreaker+ · Jan 25, 2005

Just my thoughts.

If TO was never hurt and 100% healthy i think NE would be about -4-6.

If TO tries to play and is not 100% healthy (i dont think he is healthy at all) the line might come down just a little but...........

I think it helps New England a lot more. TO will not be effective and McNabb will try to force stuff to him and it will lead to turnovers.

I hope TO keeps on saying he is going to play so the line will go down a little and actually help NE.

Let's not forget McNabb is overrated and frequently misses wide open recievers by a couple of yards.

JMO

xflrejects · Jan 25, 2005

Dr. Bob-the Mathematical Moron-also Had Pittsburgh In A Dd Blowout Over Ne.

They Guy Has Lost It And If You Followed Him All Year,his Numbers Are An Abysmal Sub .480..he Has Had 1 Year Over .500 In The Last 4.

CashPlays · Jan 25, 2005

If TO came in the line should favor higher in the pats respect.. that is one less guy to defend.. Maybe TO could dance alittle more on the sideline...

Marco · Jan 25, 2005

He's been sitting out for how long now....even if he plays how effective is he going to be?

If this is gonna be another Randy Moss limping around the field at half-speed you might as well start someone who is 100%

TO at half-speed doesn't help the Philly cause, as Line Breaker referred to....

Speaking of covering the spread, isn't New England like 16-2 against the spread this year?

I don't know how balanced the money was on Pats games this year....I realize the pointspread is trying to balance the money on both sides of the game so an avalanche of money doesn't flow in on one side and create a huge risk to the books should the majority of the money be right......

Anybody have an stats on the line movement in the Pats games this year as to where the line opened and where it closed at? Patriot, you got any figures on that????

16-2 against the spread leaves me to believe that the linesmaker may be putting out a "correct" number in terms of balancing the money, but its truly off in relationship to how the Pats are performing on the field.

Perhaps the quietest, most underrated dynasty that we have seen yet...